Modelling COVID-19 transmission in a hemodialysis centre using simulation generated contacts matrices

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 19;16(11):e0259970. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259970. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly threatening to patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) on intermittent hemodialysis and their care providers. Hemodialysis patients who receive life-sustaining medical therapy in healthcare settings, face unique challenges as they need to be at a dialysis unit three or more times a week, where they are confined to specific settings and tended to by dialysis nurses and staff with physical interaction and in close proximity. Despite the importance and critical situation of the dialysis units, modelling studies of the SARS-CoV-2 spread in these settings are very limited. In this paper, we have used a combination of discrete event and agent-based simulation models, to study the operations of a typical large dialysis unit and generate contact matrices to examine outbreak scenarios. We present the details of the contact matrix generation process and demonstrate how the simulation calculates a micro-scale contact matrix comprising the number and duration of contacts at a micro-scale time step. We have used the contacts matrix in an agent-based model to predict disease transmission under different scenarios. The results show that micro-simulation can be used to estimate contact matrices, which can be used effectively for disease modelling in dialysis and similar settings.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Contact Tracing / statistics & numerical data*
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious / statistics & numerical data*
  • Hemodialysis Units, Hospital / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical

Grants and funding

The University Health Network; Public Health Agency of Canada; Canadian Institute of Health Research, Ontario; Research Funds, National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.