Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Nov 23;118(47):e1922872118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1922872118.

Abstract

Network theory, as emerging from complex systems science, can provide critical predictive power for mitigating the global warming crisis and other societal challenges. Here we discuss the main differences of this approach to classical numerical modeling and highlight several cases where the network approach substantially improved the prediction of high-impact phenomena: 1) El Niño events, 2) droughts in the central Amazon, 3) extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes, 4) the Indian summer monsoon, and 5) extreme stratospheric polar vortex states that influence the occurrence of wintertime cold spells in northern Eurasia. In this perspective, we argue that network-based approaches can gainfully complement numerical modeling.

Keywords: climate networks; climate phenomena; forecasting; network theory.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't