Spatio-temporal classification and prediction of land use and land cover change for the Vembanad Lake system, Kerala: a machine learning approach

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change has become a critical issue for decision planners and conservationists due to inappropriate growth and its effect on natural ecosystems. As a result, the goal of this study is to identify the LULC for the Vembanad Lake system (VLS), Kerala, in the short term, i.e., within a decade, utilizing three standard machine learning approaches, random forest (RF), classification and regression trees (CART), and support vector machines (SVM), on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. When comparing the three techniques, SVM performed poor at an average accuracy of around 82.5%, CART being the next at accuracy of 87.5%, and the RF model being good at the average of 89.5%. The RF outperformed the SVM and CART in almost identical spectral classes such as barren land and built-up areas. As a result, RF-classified LULC is considered to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of LULC transition analysis for 2035 and 2050. The study was conducted in Idrisi TerrSet software using the cellular automata (CA)-Markov chain analysis. The model's efficiency is evaluated by comparing the projected 2019 image to the actual 2019 classified image. The efficiency was good with more than 94.5% accuracy for the classes except for barren land, which might have resulted from the recent natural calamities and the accelerated anthropogenic activity in the area.

Keywords: CA–Markov chain analysis; Classification; Classification and regression trees; Google Earth Engine; LULC prediction; Land use and land cover; Random forest; Support vector machines.