Delaying carbon dioxide removal in the European Union puts climate targets at risk

Ángel Galán-Martín; Daniel Vázquez; Selene Cobo; Niall Mac Dowell; José Antonio Caballero; Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26680-3

Delaying carbon dioxide removal in the European Union puts climate targets at risk

Nat Commun. 2021 Nov 11;12(1):6490. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26680-3.

Authors

Ángel Galán-Martín^#^{1

2

3}, Daniel Vázquez^#^{1

4}, Selene Cobo¹, Niall Mac Dowell^{5

6}, José Antonio Caballero⁴, Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez⁷

Affiliations

¹ Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, ETH Zürich, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 1, 8093, Zürich, Switzerland.
² Department of Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering, University of Jaén, Campus Las Lagunillas s/n, 23071, Jaén, Spain.
³ Center for Advanced Studies in Earth Sciences, Energy and Environment (CEACTEMA), University of Jaén, Campus Las Lagunillas s/n, 23071, Jaén, Spain.
⁴ Institute of Chemical Process Engineering, University of Alicante, PO 99, E-3080, Alicante, Spain.
⁵ Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, SW7 1NA, UK.
⁶ Centre for Process Systems Engineering, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
⁷ Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, ETH Zürich, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 1, 8093, Zürich, Switzerland. gonzalo.guillen.gosalbez@chem.ethz.ch.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be essential to meet the climate targets, so enabling its deployment at the right time will be decisive. Here, we investigate the still poorly understood implications of delaying CDR actions, focusing on integrating direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (DACCS and BECCS) into the European Union power mix. Under an indicative target of -50 Gt of net CO₂ by 2100, delayed CDR would cost an extra of 0.12-0.19 trillion EUR per year of inaction. Moreover, postponing CDR beyond mid-century would substantially reduce the removal potential to almost half (-35.60 Gt CO₂) due to the underused biomass and land resources and the maximum technology diffusion speed. The effective design of BECCS and DACCS systems calls for long-term planning starting from now and aligned with the evolving power systems. Our quantitative analysis of the consequences of inaction on CDR-with climate targets at risk and fair CDR contributions at stake-should help to break the current impasse and incentivize early actions worldwide.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't