Spatiotemporal variations in aerosol optical depth and associated risks for populations in the arid region of Central Asia

Abstract

With the progress of urbanization, atmospheric pollution and physical health issues caused by the increase of aerosol optical depth (AOD) become more and more prominent. Hence, population exposure risk to AOD becomes a research hotspot. The arid Central Asia (ACA) has a generally high AOD and is a major source area for dust aerosols in the world. Only few studies have discussed population exposure risk to AOD in ACA. Based on multisource remote sensing data, and used population exposure risk model, this study evaluated population exposure risk to AOD in six ecological zones (Northern steppe region of ACA (NSCA), Aral Sea desert area (ASDA), Tianshan Mountains (TSMT), Junggar Basin desert area (JBDA), Tarim Basin desert area (TBDA) and Hexi corridor desert area (HCDA)). Generally, AOD in ACA was kept increasing from 2000 to 2015, and it increased mostly in HCDA and areas near the Aral Sea (p < 0.001). With respect to seasonal variations, the maximum AOD was observed in spring and autumn, and the minimum was in winter. Considering land use changes, AOD was mainly manifested by the reduction of water bodies and expansion of construction lands. This was the mostly significant in NSCA and ASDA (p < 0.01). The population exposure risk to AOD in ACA was increasing continuously from 2000 to 2015, and high-value regions (>9) concentrated in oases, specifically, in the Aral Sea basin and Tarim River basin.The Aral Sea basin became the major AOD source region in ACA due to the shrinking water area after unreasonable development and utilization of water resources. These further increase population exposure risk to AOD in the Aral Sea area. Hence, ecological restoration in terminal lakes of ACA will become the key to lower population exposure risk to AOD practically.

Keywords: Aerosol pollution; Arid region; Climate change; Population exposure risk; Risk modeling.