Benchmarking risk predictions and uncertainties in the NSCR model of GCR cancer risks with revised low let risk coefficients

Abstract

We report on the contributions of model factors that appear in projection models to the overall uncertainty in cancer risks predictions for exposures to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) in deep space, including comparisons with revised low LET risks coefficients. Annual GCR exposures to astronauts at solar minimum are considered. Uncertainties in low LET risk coefficients, dose and dose-rate modifiers, quality factors (QFs), space radiation organ doses, non-targeted effects (NTE) and increased tumor lethality at high LET compared to low LET radiation are considered. For the low LET reference radiation parameters we use a revised assessment of excess relative risk (ERR) and excess additive risk (EAR) for radiation induced cancers in the Life-Span Study (LSS) of the Atomic bomb survivors that was recently reported, and also consider ERR estimates for males from the International Study of Nuclear Workers (INWORKS). For 45-y old females at mission age the risk of exposure induced death (REID) per year and 95% confidence intervals is predicted as 1.6% [0.71, 1.63] without QF uncertainties and 1.64% [0.69, 4.06] with QF uncertainties. However, fatal risk predictions increase to 5.83% [2.56, 9.7] based on a sensitivity study of the inclusion of non-targeted effects on risk predictions. For males a comparison using LSS or INWORKS lead to predictions of 1.24% [0.58, 3.14] and 2.45% [1.23, 5.9], respectively without NTEs. The major conclusion of our report is that high LET risk prediction uncertainties due to QFs parameters, NTEs, and possible increase lethality at high LET are dominant contributions to GCR uncertainties and should be the focus of space radiation research.

Keywords: Cancer risk; Galactic cosmic rays (GCR); HZE particles; High let radiation; Quality factors (QF); Relative biological effectiveness (RBE); Space radiation.