An online nomogram of acute respiratory distress syndrome originating from pulmonary disease

Abstract

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a highly heterogeneous disease accompanied by high mortality. Our goal was to investigate the risk factors for 28-day mortality and then establish a predictive online nomogram for ARDS originating from pulmonary disease (ARDSp).

Methods: We examined 1087 patients diagnosed with ARDS from January 2010 to December 2019 at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University. A total of 185 ARDSp patients were finally enrolled in the training cohort. A total of 43 ARDSp patients from January 2020 to August 2021 in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University and the Traditional Chinese Medical Hospital of Jiangbei District were included in the external validation cohort. Fundamental, clinical and laboratory variables at admission were gathered from medical records, and the 28-day prognosis was followed up.

Results: In the training cohort, it was found that age, sex, C-reactive protein, albumin and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality via multivariate logistic regression. The online nomogram software for 28-day mortality showed good discrimination, calibration and clinical utility in both the training cohort and external validation cohort.

Conclusions: For ARDSp patients, older males, lower C-reactive protein and albumin levels, and MODS were independent predictors of a poor 28-day prognosis. The online nomogram based on five independent factors could act as a predictive appliance in clinical practice.

Keywords: ARDSp; mortality; nomogram; risk factors.