Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound-Based Nomogram: A Potential Predictor of Individually Postoperative Early Recurrence for Patients With Combined Hepatocellular-Cholangiocarcinoma

Abstract

Purposes: To evaluate the postsurgical prognostic implication of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) for combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (CHC). To build a CEUS-based early recurrence prediction classifier for CHC, in comparison with tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging.

Methods: The CEUS features and clinicopathological findings of each case were analyzed, and the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System categories were assigned. The recurrence-free survival associated factors were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard model. Incorporating the independent factors, nomograms were built to estimate the possibilities of 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year recurrence and whose prognostic value was determined by time-dependent receiver operating characteristics, calibration curves, and hazard layering efficiency validation, comparing with TNM staging system.

Results: In the multivariable analysis, the levels of carbohydrate antigen 19-9, prothrombin time and total bilirubin, and tumor shape, the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System category were independent factors for recurrence-free survival. The LR-M category showed longer recurrence-free survival than did the LR-4/5 category. The 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year area under the curves of the CEUS-clinical nomogram, clinical nomogram, and TNM staging system were 0.518, 0.552, and 0.843 versus 0.354, 0.240, and 0.624 (P = .048, .049, and .471) vs. 0.562, 0.545, and 0.843 (P = .630, .564, and .007), respectively. The calibration curves of the CEUS-clinical model at different prediction time pionts were all close to the ideal line. The CEUS-clinical model effectively stratified patients into groups of high and low risk of recurrence in both training and validation set, while the TNM staging system only works on the training set.

Conclusions: Our CEUS-clinical nomogram is a reliable early recurrence prediction tool for hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma and helps postoperative risk stratification.

Keywords: contrast media; liver neoplasms; nomograms; recurrence; ultrasonography.