Climate-associated major food crops production change under multi-scenario in China

Yujie Liu; Jie Zhang; Tao Pan; Qiaomin Chen; Ya Qin; Quansheng Ge

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151393

Climate-associated major food crops production change under multi-scenario in China

Sci Total Environ. 2022 Mar 10:811:151393. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151393. Epub 2021 Nov 5.

Authors

Yujie Liu¹, Jie Zhang², Tao Pan³, Qiaomin Chen⁴, Ya Qin², Quansheng Ge²

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China. Electronic address: liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn.
² Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
³ Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
⁴ Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; School of Food and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Queensland, Gatton 4343, QLD, Australia.

PMID: 34748850
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151393

Abstract

To inform targeted adaptation measures, comprehensive assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural systems are urgently needed. The current study analyzed the production (including phenology, yield, ET, and WUE) of major crops in the near future (2011-2040) through probabilistic assessment. The Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat/Maize model was driven by ensemble climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Results showed that: (1) Compared with the base period, the probability of advanced maturity for wheat and maize was 90.36-91.18% and 62.96-64.50%, respectively. The probability of yield reduction for wheat and maize was 64.12-68.93% and 40.44-41.41%, respectively. The probability of water use efficiency (WUE) reduction for wheat and maize was 51.09-53.94% and 35.86-37.93%, respectively. (2) In the absence of adaptation measures, substantial yield loss was found in major crop-producing areas, including the northern winter wheat planting area and Huang-Huai Plain spring-summer maize zone. The spatial overlap of the vulnerable area will exacerbate food insecurity. (3) The decrease in wheat yield and WUE were both greater than that of maize. Replacing highly sensitive crops with heat-tolerant varieties and dietary diversity should be advocated to cope with future climate change. The results will contribute to adaptive decision-making in China.

Keywords: China; Major crops; Phenology; Probabilistic estimate; Yield.

MeSH terms

Agriculture
China
Climate Change
Climate Models*
Crops, Agricultural*
Triticum
Zea mays