COVID-19 mortality and exposure to airborne PM2.5: A lag time correlation

Longyi Shao; Yaxin Cao; Tim Jones; M Santosh; Luis F O Silva; Shuoyi Ge; Kátia da Boit; Xiaolei Feng; Mengyuan Zhang; Kelly BéruBé

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151286

COVID-19 mortality and exposure to airborne PM_2.5: A lag time correlation

Sci Total Environ. 2022 Feb 1;806(Pt 3):151286. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151286. Epub 2021 Oct 29.

Authors

Longyi Shao¹, Yaxin Cao², Tim Jones³, M Santosh⁴, Luis F O Silva⁵, Shuoyi Ge², Kátia da Boit⁵, Xiaolei Feng², Mengyuan Zhang², Kelly BéruBé⁶

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining, College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China. Electronic address: shaol@cumtb.edu.cn.
² State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining, College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China.
³ School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Park Place, Cardiff CF10 3AT, UK.
⁴ School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geoscience Beijing, Beijing 100083, China; Department of Earth Science, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
⁵ Department of Civil and Environmental, Universidad de la Costa, Calle 58 #55-66, 080002 Barranquilla, Atlántico, Colombia.
⁶ School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Museum Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3AX, Wales, UK.

Abstract

COVID-19 has escalated into one of the most serious crises in the 21st Century. Given the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its high mortality rate, here we investigate the impact and relationship of airborne PM_2.5 to COVID-19 mortality. Previous studies have indicated that PM_2.5 has a positive relationship with the spread of COVID-19. To gain insights into the delayed effect of PM_2.5 concentration (μgm^-3) on mortality, we focused on the role of PM_2.5 in Wuhan City in China and COVID-19 during the period December 27, 2019 to April 7, 2020. We also considered the possible impact of various meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, atmospheric pressure and precipitation on pollutant levels. The results from the Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses reveal that the population exposed to higher levels of PM_2.5 pollution are susceptible to COVID-19 mortality with a lag time of >18 days. By establishing a generalized additive model, the delayed effect of PM_2.5 on the death toll of COVID-19 was verified. A negative correction was identified between temperature and number of COVID-19 deaths, whereas atmospheric pressure exhibits a positive correlation with deaths, both with a significant lag effect. The results from our study suggest that these epidemiological relationships may contribute to the understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic and provide insights for public health strategies.

Keywords: COVID-19; Correlation analysis; Lag time; Mortality; PM(2.5).

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants* / analysis
Air Pollutants* / toxicity
Air Pollution* / adverse effects
Air Pollution* / analysis
COVID-19*
China / epidemiology
Humans
Pandemics
Particulate Matter / analysis
Particulate Matter / toxicity
SARS-CoV-2

Substances

Air Pollutants
Particulate Matter