Development and validation of a mortality predicting scoring system for severe aplastic anaemia patients receiving haploidentical allogeneic transplantation

Br J Haematol. 2022 Feb;196(3):735-742. doi: 10.1111/bjh.17916. Epub 2021 Nov 6.

Abstract

Haploidentical allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (haplo-HSCT) is a significant alternative treatment for severe aplastic anaemia (SAA). To improve this process by modifying the risk stratification system, we conducted a retrospective study using our database. 432 SAA patients who received haplo-HSCT between 2006 and 2020 were enrolled. These patients were divided into a training (n = 288) and a validation (n = 144) subset randomly. In the training cohort, longer time from diagnosis to transplantation, poorer Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) status and higher haematopoietic cell transplantation-specific comorbidity index (HCT-CI) score were independent risk factors for worse treatment-related mortality (TRM) in the final multivariable model. The haplo-HSCT scoring system was developed by these three parameters. Three-year TRM after haplo-HSCT were 6% [95% confidence interval (CI), 1-21%], 21% (95% CI, 7-40%), and 47% (95% CI, 20-70%) for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group, respectively (P < 0·0001). In the validation cohort, the haplo-HSCT scoring system also separated patients into three risk groups with increasing risk of TRM: intermediate-risk [hazard ratio (HR) 2·45, 95% CI, 0·92-6·53] and high-risk (HR 11·74, 95% CI, 3·07-44·89) compared with the low-risk group (P = 0·001). In conclusion, the haplo-HSCT scoring system could effectively predict TRM after transplantation.

Keywords: haploidentical; predicting model; severe aplastic anaemia; transplantation; treatment-related mortality.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Anemia, Aplastic / diagnosis
  • Anemia, Aplastic / epidemiology
  • Anemia, Aplastic / mortality*
  • Anemia, Aplastic / therapy*
  • Cause of Death
  • Clinical Decision-Making
  • Cohort Studies
  • Decision Trees
  • Disease Management
  • Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation / adverse effects
  • Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation / methods
  • Humans
  • Mortality
  • Prognosis
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Transplantation, Haploidentical
  • Treatment Outcome