Transition prediction in the Ising-model

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 4;16(11):e0259177. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259177. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Dynamical systems can be subject to critical transitions where a system's state abruptly shifts from one stable equilibrium to another. To a certain extent such transitions can be predicted with a set of methods known as early warning signals. These methods are often developed and tested on systems simulated with equation-based approaches that focus on the aggregate dynamics of a system. Many ecological phenomena however seem to necessitate the consideration of a system's micro-level interactions since only there the actual reasons for sudden state transitions become apparent. Agent-based approaches that simulate systems from the bottom up by explicitly focusing on these micro-level interactions have only rarely been used in such investigations. This study compares the performance of a bifurcation estimation method for predicting state transitions when applied to data from an equation-based and an agent-based version of the Ising-model. The results show that the method can be applied to agent-based models and, despite its greater stochasticity, can provide useful predictions about state changes in complex systems.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Ecosystem
  • Models, Statistical*

Grants and funding

The authors acknowledge that this study received financial support from the University of Graz.