China's mega-urban agglomerations have experienced severe particulate matter pollution that is accompanied by rapid economic growth and extensive administrative division adjustment (ADA). However, the precise roles of ADA on the environmental quality are unknown. Using the geographical detector and evolution tree model, this study quantifies the effects and mechanisms of ADA on the changes in PM2.5 concentration in three mega-urban agglomerations: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Pearl River Delta (PRD) during 2000-2017. Our results showed that: (1) ADA had strong positive effects on PM2.5 concentrations in the 0-6 years lag and negative effects in the 7-10 years lag; (2) During 2000-2009, ADA elevated PM2.5 concentration by 5.93% via stimulating the development and transfer of heavy industry and urban sprawl in the BTH; (3) YRD and PRD respectively reduced the ADA's exacerbating effect to 5.26% and 4.98% via reasonable industrial structures and comprehensive cooperation mechanisms; (4) During 2009-2017, BTH and YRD integrated industrial transformation and environmental protection services through ADA, which alleviated 9.51% and 8.49% of PM2.5 pollution. PRD, meanwhile, accomplished orderly population dispersal and urban expansion by combining ADA with urban planning, thus reducing the PM2.5 concentration by 8.01%. We located three agglomerations in the evolution tree, which provide a basis for formulating relevant policies and region-oriented air pollution joint prevention control strategies.
Keywords: Administrative division adjustment; Influence mechanisms; Lag effect; Mega-urban agglomerations; PM(2.5); Spatiotemporal evolution.
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