COVID-19: Optimal Design of Serosurveys for Disease Burden Estimation

Sankhya B (2008). 2022;84(2):472-494. doi: 10.1007/s13571-021-00267-w. Epub 2021 Oct 19.

Abstract

We provide a methodology by which an epidemiologist may arrive at an optimal design for a survey whose goal is to estimate the disease burden in a population. For serosurveys with a given budget of C rupees, a specified set of tests with costs, sensitivities, and specificities, we show the existence of optimal designs in four different contexts, including the well known c-optimal design. Usefulness of the results are illustrated via numerical examples. Our results are applicable to a wide range of epidemiological surveys under the assumptions that the estimate's Fisher-information matrix satisfies a uniform positive definite criterion.

Keywords: COVID-19; Fisher information; adjusted estimate.; c-optimal design; serosurvey; weighted estimate; worst-case design.