The role of food crop production, agriculture value added, electricity consumption, forest covered area, and forest production on CO2 emissions: insights from a developing economy

Abstract

Several studies have quantified the carbon dioxide (CO₂₎ emissions associated with energy consumption, agriculture value added, food crop production, forest covered area, and forest production in various countries. However, past studies have ignored the long-term and short-term effects of these factors on CO₂. This study used data from 1980 to 2018 and applied the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) technique to test long-run and short-run effects of these factors on CO₂ emission in the Pakistani context. The results revealed that in short-run food crop production, forest covered area and forest production have capacity to reduce CO₂ emission. However, in long run, energy consumption and agriculture value added along with food crop production, forest covered area, and forest production are negatively and significantly related to CO₂ emission which shows that these sectors, in long run, have capacity to mitigate emissions. Additionally, results also show that food crop production and forest covered area are more effective to reduce CO₂ emission as compared to other sectors. The robustness of the results was supported by using additional models and tests. This study provides scholars with valuable insights and also helps government authorities and policymakers to develop comprehensive strategies to reduce carbon emissions.

Keywords: Agriculture; Autoregressive distributive lag model; CO2 emissions; Energy consumption; Pakistan.