The ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy designs. Analysis of the growth rate of daily new cases indicates that the value (5.47%) decreased significantly after nonpharmaceutical interventions were adopted (1.85%). Vaccinations failed to significantly reduce the growth rates, which were 0.67% before vaccination and 2.44% and 2.05% after 14 and 28 d of vaccination, respectively. Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions have been loosened after vaccination drives in most countries. To predict the spread of COVID-19 and clarify the implications to adjust nonpharmaceutical interventions, we build a susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccinated (SIRV) model with a nonpharmaceutical intervention module and Metropolis-Hastings sampling in three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic). The daily new cases are expected to decrease rapidly or increase with a flatter curve with stronger nonpharmaceutical interventions, and the peak date is expected to occur earlier (5-20 d) with minimum infections. These findings demonstrate that adopting stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions is the key to alleviating the spread of COVID-19 before attaining worldwide herd immunity.
Keywords: COVID-19; South and Southeast Asia; improved SIRV; nonpharmaceutical interventions; parameter estimation; scenario prediction.