Phytophthora meadii (McRae) is a hemibiotrophic oomycete fungus that infects tender nuts, growing buds, and crown regions, resulting in fruit, bud, and crown rot diseases in arecanut (Areca catechu L.), respectively. Among them, fruit rot disease (FRD) causes serious economic losses that are borne by the growers, making it the greatest yield-limiting factor in arecanut crops. FRD has been known to occur in traditional growing areas since 1910, particularly in Malnad and coastal tracts of Karnataka. Systemic surveys were conducted on the disease several decades ago. The design of appropriate management approaches to curtail the impacts of the disease requires information on the spatial distribution of the risks posed by the disease. In this study, we used exploratory survey data to determine areas that are most at risk. Point pattern (spatial autocorrelation and Ripley's K function) analyses confirmed the existence of moderate clustering across sampling points and optimized hotspots of FRD were determined. Geospatial techniques such as inverse distance weighting (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), and indicator kriging (IK) were performed to predict the percent severity rates at unsampled sites. IDW and OK generated identical maps, whereby the FRD severity rates were higher in areas adjacent to the Western Ghats and the seashore. Additionally, IK was used to identify both disease-prone and disease-free areas in Karnataka. After fitting the semivariograms with different models, the exponential model showed the best fit with the semivariogram. Using this model information, OK and IK maps were generated. The identified FRD risk areas in our study, which showed higher disease probability rates (>20%) exceeding the threshold level, need to be monitored with the utmost care to contain and reduce the further spread of the disease in Karnataka.
Keywords: IDW; arecanut; disease risk estimation; fruit rot disease; point pattern analysis; spatial statistics; surface interpolation.