Trade vulnerability assessment in the grain-importing countries: A case study of China

PLoS One. 2021 Oct 22;16(10):e0257987. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257987. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Since the 2008 global food crisis, food security vulnerability has been a prominent topic in the food policy debate. However, vulnerability is inherently difficult to conceptualize and is more challenging to operationalize and measure. This study constructs a mathematical model and takes China as a case study to measure the vulnerability and sensitivity of China with its partners in the international grain trade. The results show that 1) the degree of interdependence between China and its grain trading partners is asymmetric, which generates trade vulnerability or economic power; 2) the vulnerability of China's food trade shows a high spatiotemporal heterogeneity among countries: the higher vulnerability zones are concentrated in North America and Northeast Asia, and the scope of the higher vulnerability zones tends to expand; 3) Our results also reveal that China also has different sensitivities to fluctuations in grain markets from different countries, and the higher sensitive zones of the grain trade in China are mainly distributed in America, Europe, and Oceania. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a methodology for food trade vulnerability assessment and examines the influence of international food trade on food security in importing countries, measured using the vulnerability index and sensitivity index. Nevertheless, the conclusions of this study can be considered preliminary, and there remains great potential for future studies to deepen and broaden our analyses further.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture / methods*
  • Australia
  • Canada
  • China
  • Commerce / methods*
  • Edible Grain / economics*
  • Food Handling / economics
  • Food Security / economics*
  • Humans
  • Hunger
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • United States

Grants and funding

This study was supported with funding in the form of grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42001128) awarded to J.D., from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41971160) awarded to H.J. and the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (LY19D010009) awarded to H.J. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.