The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development

Raleigh R Hood; Gary W Shenk; Rachel L Dixon; Sean M C Smith; William P Ball; Jesse O Bash; Rich Batiuk; Kathy Boomer; Damian C Brady; Carl Cerco; Peter Claggett; Kim de Mutsert; Zachary M Easton; Andrew J Elmore; Marjorie A M Friedrichs; Lora A Harris; Thomas F Ihde; Iara Lacher; Li Li; Lewis C Linker; Andrew Miller; Julia Moriarty; Gregory B Noe; George Onyullo; Kenneth Rose; Katie Skalak; Richard Tian; Tamie L Veith; Lisa Wainger; Donald Weller; Yinglong Joseph Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109635

The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development

Ecol Modell. 2021 Sep 15:465:1-109635. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109635.

Authors

Raleigh R Hood¹, Gary W Shenk², Rachel L Dixon³, Sean M C Smith⁴, William P Ball³, Jesse O Bash⁵, Rich Batiuk⁶, Kathy Boomer⁷, Damian C Brady⁸, Carl Cerco⁹, Peter Claggett², Kim de Mutsert¹⁰, Zachary M Easton¹¹, Andrew J Elmore¹², Marjorie A M Friedrichs¹³, Lora A Harris¹⁴, Thomas F Ihde¹⁵, Iara Lacher¹⁶, Li Li¹⁷, Lewis C Linker⁶, Andrew Miller¹⁸, Julia Moriarty¹⁹, Gregory B Noe²⁰, George Onyullo²¹, Kenneth Rose¹, Katie Skalak²², Richard Tian², Tamie L Veith²³, Lisa Wainger¹⁴, Donald Weller²⁴, Yinglong Joseph Zhang¹³

Affiliations

¹ Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD 21613, USA.
² USGS Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 410 Severn Avenue, Suite 109, Annapolis, MD, 21403, USA.
³ Chesapeake Research Consortium, 645 Contees Wharf Road, Edgewater, MD 21037, USA.
⁴ University of Maine, School of Earth and Climate Sciences, Bryand Global Science Center, Orono, ME 04469, USA.
⁵ Environmental Protection Agency, Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Durham, NC 27709, USA.
⁶ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 410 Severn Avenue, Suite 109, Annapolis, MD, 21403, USA.
⁷ The Nature Conservancy, 114 South Washington Street, Easton, MD 21601, USA.
⁸ Darling Marine Center, University of Maine, 193 Clarks Cove Rd, Walpole, ME 04573, USA.
⁹ #U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Waterways Experiment Station, P.O. Box 631, Vicksburg, MS 39180, USA.
¹⁰ University of Southern Mississippi, Gulf Coast Research Laboratory, 703 East Beach Drive, Ocean Springs, MS 39564, USA.
¹¹ Virginia Tech, 155 Ag Quad Lane, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
¹² Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, 301 Braddock Rd, Frostburg, MD 21532, USA.
¹³ Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, 1375 Greate Rd, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA.
¹⁴ Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 38, Solomons, MD 20688, USA.
¹⁵ Patuxent Environmental & Aquatic Research Laboratory, Morgan State University, 10545 Mackall Road, St. Leonard, MD 20685, USA.
¹⁶ Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA.
¹⁷ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Penn State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
¹⁸ Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland Baltimore County, 1000 Hilltop Circle, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA.
¹⁹ Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder CO 80309, USA.
²⁰ Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, MS926A, Reston, VA 20192, USA.
²¹ District of Columbia Department of Energy and Environment, 1200 First Street NE, Washington DC 20002, USA.
²² National Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, 12201Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA 20192, USA.
²³ U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service, Pasture Systems and Watershed Management Research Unit, Building 3702, Curtin Road, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
²⁴ Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, 647 Contees Wharf Road, Edgewater, MD 21037, USA.

Abstract

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Keywords: Airshed Modeling; Biogeochemical Modeling; Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool; Chesapeake Bay Agreement; Chesapeake Bay Program; Environmental Protection Agency; Estuarine Modeling; Hydrodynamic Modeling; Living Resource Modeling; Modeling; NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office; Total Maximum Daily Load; Watershed Modeling.

Grants and funding

EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States