A millennium-long climate history of erosive storms across the Tiber River Basin, Italy, from 725 to 2019 CE

Abstract

Rainfall erosivity drives damaging hydrological events with significant environmental and socio-economic impacts. This study presents the world's hitherto longest time-series of annual rainfall erosivity (725-2019 CE), one from the Tiber River Basin (TRB), a fluvial valley in central Italy in which the city of Rome is located. A historical perspective of erosive floods in the TRB is provided employing a rainfall erosivity model based on documentary data, calibrated against a sample (1923-1964) of actual measurement data. Estimates show a notable rainfall erosivity, and increasing variability, during the Little Ice Age (here, ~ 1250-1849), especially after c. 1495. During the sixteenth century, erosive forcing peaked at > 3500 MJ mm hm^-2 h^-1 yr^-1 in 1590, with values > 2500 MJ mm hm^-2 h^-1 yr^-1 in 1519 and 1566. Rainfall erosivity continued into the Current Warm Period (since ~ 1850), reaching a maximum of ~ 3000 MJ mm hm^-2 h^-1 yr^-1 in the 1940s. More recently, erosive forcing has attenuated, though remains critically high (e.g., 2087 and 2008 MJ mm hm^-2 h^-1 yr^-1 in 1992 and 2005, respectively). Comparison of the results with sediment production (1934-1973) confirms the model's ability to predict geomorphological effects in the TRB, and reflects the role of North Atlantic circulation dynamics in central Italian river basins.