The "Inherent Vices" of Policy Design: Uncertainty, Maliciousness, and Noncompliance

Abstract

Policy designs must not only "work" in the sense of accomplishing their goals but must also work in their intended fashion. Most research to date has focused on the former topic and dwells on the technical aspects of how various tools and instruments could be utilized to achieve the aims and goals of policymakers. This branch of research tends to underemphasize the difficulties inherent to policy making including policy contexts that are often highly uncertain, policymakers who fall short of an idealized version of high capacity, well-intentioned decisionmakers grappling with relevant public problems, and policy-takers who fail to comply with government wishes. These "inherent vices" of policy making are factors which contribute to policy volatility or the risk of policy failure. The paper stresses the need for improved risk management and mitigation strategies in policy formulation and policy designs to take these risks into account. It sets out and develops an approach borrowed from product failure management (in manufacturing) and portfolio management (in finance) to help better assess and manage these risks.

Keywords: Public policy; risk analysis; uncertainty.