Near and long-term perspectives on strategies to decarbonize China's heavy-duty trucks through 2050

Abstract

China needs to drastically reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), a key emitter in the growing transport sector, in order to address energy security concerns and meet its climate targets. We address existing research gaps by modeling feasibility, applicability, and energy and emissions impacts of multiple decarbonization strategies at different points in time. China still relies heavily on coal power, so impacts of new HDT technologies depend on the timing of their introduction relative to progress toward non-fossil power. We use a bottom-up model to simulate HDT energy consumption and CO₂ emissions through 2050. Results show that beginning to deploy battery electric and fuel-cell HDTs as early as 2020 and 2035, respectively, could achieve significant and the largest CO₂ emissions reduction by 2050 with a decarbonized power sector. However, viable near-term strategies-improving efficiency and logistics, switching to liquefied natural gas-could halve HDTs' current diesel consumption and CO₂ emissions by 2050. Our results underscore the need for a mix of near- and long-term policy and technology options to decarbonize China's HDTs.