The longitudinal effect of the atherogenic index of plasma on type 2 diabetes in middle-aged and older Chinese

Abstract

Aims: Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP) has been proposed as a novel marker of plasma atherogenicity, but its longitudinal predictive value in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains unclear. We aimed to assess the associations of AIP and its longitudinal transition with T2DM among middle-aged and older Chinese.

Methods: Data were extracted from four rounds of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018). AIP was calculated as log₁₀ (triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Participants were classified into high and low AIP groups at baseline, and subsequently into four transition patterns during follow-up: maintained-high, maintained-low, high-to-low, and low-to-high AIP. Multivariable Cox frailty models were applied to explore the longitudinal transition patterns of AIP on the development of T2DM.

Results: A total of 8760 subjects without T2DM were selected in 2011, of which 981 developed T2DM until 2018. When compared with people with maintained-low AIP patterns, those with transition patterns of maintained-high AIP, high-to-low AIP, and low-to-high AIP were at around 1.5 times higher risk of T2DM (HR_adj = 1.69, 1.32, and 1.47, respectively, all P < 0.05). However, the risk of T2DM did not decrease in the high-to-low AIP group as compared to the maintained-high AIP group.

Conclusions: Three longitudinal AIP transition patterns (maintained-high AIP, high-to-low AIP, and low-to-high AIP) were associated with the development of T2DM. Preventions are needed to combat T2DM at an early dyslipidemic stage.

Keywords: Atherogenic Index of Plasma; Cohort study; Type 2 diabetes mellitus.