Testing the applicability of random forest modeling to examine benthic foraminiferal responses to multiple environmental parameters

Abstract

The main environmental variables controlling benthic foraminiferal distributions were identified and used to assess their influence on ecological indices developed as predictors of Ecological Quality Status (EcoQS) in marine ecosystems. Gradient forest and random forest models were applied to assess the predictive value of a selection of abiotic (environmental) and biotic (foraminifera) variables in a costal marine area in the central Adriatic Sea (Italy). This approach yields evidence that the predictor variables sand, silt, Pollution Load Index, and TN have the greatest influence on the distribution of benthic foraminifera in this area. In addition, we identify thresholds for the most important environmental variables that influence ecological indices. These findings contribute to efforts to determine how to best improve sediment quality and environmental stability for marine conservation. Further application of these approaches represents a useful tool for policymakers to survey the diversity of marine organisms and to improve the ability to protect and restore marine ecosystems by identifying predictors of diversity and identifying key thresholds in these predictors.

Keywords: Adriatic Sea; Benthic foraminiferal community; Ecological quality status; Ecological thresholds; Gradient forest; Random forest.