Assessing countermeasures during a hepatitis A virus outbreak among men who have sex with men

Abstract

Background: A hepatitis A epidemic occurred among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Japan in 2017-2018. In this study, we employ a parsimonious mathematical model to epidemiologically investigate the dynamics of infection, aiming to evaluate the effectiveness of campaign-based interventions among MSM to raise awareness of the situation.

Methods: A mathematical model describing a mixture of human-to-human transmission and environmental transmission was fitted to surveillance data. Taking seasonally varying environmental transmission into account, we estimated the reproduction number of hepatitis A virus during the course of epidemic, and, especially, the abrupt decline in this reproduction number following campaign-based interventions.

Results: The reproduction number prior to the countermeasures ranged from 2.6 to 3.1 and then began to decrease following campaign-based interventions. After the first countermeasure, the reproduction number decreased, but the epidemic remained supercritical (i.e., R_t > 1). The value of R_t dropped well below one following the second countermeasure, which used web articles to widely disseminate information about the epidemic risk.

Conclusions: Although the effective reproduction number, R_t, changes because of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors, the timing of the examined countermeasures against hepatitis A in the MSM population was consistent with the abrupt declines observed in R_t. Even without vaccination, the epidemic was brought under control, and risky behaviors may have been changed by the increase in situation awareness reached through web articles.

Keywords: Awareness; Epidemic; Intervention; Mathematical model; Sexually transmitted infection.