Background: Radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) is an effective therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it the problem of AF recurrence remains. This study investigates whether a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) can accurately predict AF recurrence in patients with AF who underwent RFCA, and compares CNN with conventional statistical analysis.Methods and Results:Three-hundred and ten patients with AF after RFCA treatment, including 94 patients with AF recurrence, were enrolled. Nine variables are identified as candidate predictors by univariate Cox proportional hazards regression (CPH). A CNNSurv model for AF recurrence prediction was proposed. The model's discrimination ability is validated by a 10-fold cross validation method and measured by C-index. After back elimination, 4 predictors are used for model development, they are N-terminal pro-BNP (NT-proBNP), paroxysmal AF (PAF), left atrial appendage volume (LAAV) and left atrial volume (LAV). The average testing C-index is 0.76 (0.72-0.79). The corresponding calibration plot appears to fit well to a diagonal, and the P value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test also indicates the proposed model has good calibration ability. The proposed model has superior performance compared with the DeepSurv and multivariate CPH. The result of risk stratification indicates that patients with non-PAF, higher NT-proBNP, larger LAAV and LAV would have higher risks of AF recurrence.
Conclusions: The proposed CNNSurv model has better performance than conventional statistical analysis, which may provide valuable guidance for clinical practice.
Keywords: Atrial fibrillation; Catheter ablation; Deep learning; Electronic health record; Recurrence prediction.