A predictive model for preterm babies born < 30 weeks gestational age who will not attain full oral feedings

Abstract

Objective: Develop a model to predict gastrostomy tube (GT) for feeding at discharge in infants born < 30 weeks' (w) gestational age (GA).

Study design: A single-center retrospective study at academic NICU. Total of 391 (78 GT, 313 non-GT) infants < 30 w GA admitted in 2015-2018 split into test (15-16) and validation (17-18) cohorts. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to identify predictive factors for GT.

Results: Several factors were associated with GT requirements. Four factors included in the model were postmenstrual age (PMA) at first oral feeding, birth GA, high-frequency ventilation exposure, necrotizing enterocolitis stage II/III. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.944 in the test cohort, 0.815 in the validation cohort. Implementation plan based on the model was developed.

Conclusions: We developed a predictive model to risk-stratify infants born < 30 w GA for failing full oral feeding. We hope implementation at 38 w PMA will result in earlier placement of needed GT and discharge.