Objectives: This study aimed to validate a simple risk assessment tool for estimating the advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) risk at colonoscopy screenings and potential factors relevant for implementing this tool in the Korean population.
Methods: Our study analyzed data from the Cancer Screenee Cohort Study conducted by the National Cancer Center in Korea. The risk level was assessed using the Asia Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score developed by the Asia-Pacific Working Group on Colorectal Cancer. Logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between colorectal-related outcomes and the risk level by APCS score. The discriminatory performance of the APCS score for various colorectal-related outcomes was assessed using C-statistics.
Results: In 12,520 individuals, 317 ACN cases and 4,528 adenoma cases were found. The APCS tool successfully classified the study population into different risk groups, and significant differences in the ACN rate and other outcomes were observed. The APCS score demonstrated acceptable discrimination capability with area under the curve values ranging from 0.62 to 0.65 for various outcomes. The results of the multivariate logistic regression model revealed that the high-risk group had a 3.1-fold higher risk of ACN (95% confidence interval, 2.08 to 4.67) than the average-risk group. Body mass index (BMI) was identified as a significant predictor of ACN in both multivariate and subgroup analyses.
Conclusions: Our study highlighted significant differences in colorectal-related screening outcomes by colorectal risk level measured using the APCS score, and BMI could be used to improve the discriminatory capability of the APCS score.
Keywords: Colonoscopy; Colorectal neoplasms; Mass screening; Risk assessment.