Decrease in life expectancy due to COVID-19 disease not offset by reduced environmental impacts associated with lockdowns in Italy

Abstract

The consequence of the lockdowns implemented to address the COVID-19 pandemic on human health damage due to air pollution and other environmental issues must be better understood. This paper analyses the effect of reducing energy demand on the evolution of environmental impacts during the occurrence of 2020-lockdown periods in Italy, with a specific focus on life expectancy. An energy metabolism analysis is conducted based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) of all monthly energy consumptions, by sector, category and province area in Italy between January 2015 to December 2020. Results show a general decrease (by ∼5% on average) of the LCA midpoint impact categories (global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, fine particulate matter formation, etc.) over the entire year 2020 when compared to past years. These avoided impacts, mainly due to reductions in fossil energy consumptions, are meaningful during the first lockdown phase between March and May 2020 (by ∼21% on average). Regarding the LCA endpoint damage on human health, ∼66 Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per 100,000 inhabitants are estimated to be saved. The analysis shows that the magnitude of the officially recorded casualties is substantially larger than the estimated gains in human lives due to the environmental impact reductions. Future research could therefore investigate the complex cause-effect relationships between the deaths occurred in 2020 imputed to COVID-19 disease and co-factors other than the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Keywords: COVID-19; Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); SARS-CoV-2; energy metabolism; environmental impact; life cycle assessment (LCA).