Far from a uniform band, the biodiversity found across Earth's tropical moist forests varies widely between the high diversity of the Neotropics and Indomalaya and the relatively lower diversity of the Afrotropics. Explanations for this variation across different regions, the "pantropical diversity disparity" (PDD), remain contentious, due to difficulty teasing apart the effects of contemporary climate and paleoenvironmental history. Here, we assess the ubiquity of the PDD in over 150,000 species of terrestrial plants and vertebrates and investigate the relationship between the present-day climate and patterns of species richness. We then investigate the consequences of paleoenvironmental dynamics on the emergence of biodiversity gradients using a spatially explicit model of diversification coupled with paleoenvironmental and plate tectonic reconstructions. Contemporary climate is insufficient in explaining the PDD; instead, a simple model of diversification and temperature niche evolution coupled with paleoaridity constraints is successful in reproducing the variation in species richness and phylogenetic diversity seen repeatedly among plant and animal taxa, suggesting a prevalent role of paleoenvironmental dynamics in combination with niche conservatism. The model indicates that high biodiversity in Neotropical and Indomalayan moist forests is driven by complex macroevolutionary dynamics associated with mountain uplift. In contrast, lower diversity in Afrotropical forests is associated with lower speciation rates and higher extinction rates driven by sustained aridification over the Cenozoic. Our analyses provide a mechanistic understanding of the emergence of uneven diversity in tropical moist forests across 110 Ma of Earth's history, highlighting the importance of deep-time paleoenvironmental legacies in determining biodiversity patterns.
Keywords: gen3sis; mechanistic modeling; paleoclimate; pantropical diversity disparity; plate tectonics.
Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.