Changes in precipitation patterns associated with climate change may pose significant challenges for storm water management systems across the U.S. In particular, adapting these systems to more intense rainfall events will require significant investment, though no method currently exists for estimating the costs of these investments on a national scale. To support assessment of these costs at the national level, this paper presents a reduced-form approach for estimating changes in normalized flood depth (the volume of node flooding normalized by the area of the catchment) and the associated costs of flood prevention. This reduced form approach is calibrated to results generated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for city-wide or neighborhood-level catchments in seven cities across the U.S. Estimates derived from this approach represent a reasonable approximation of storm water management adaptation costs and exhibit no systematic bias relative to results derived from SWMM.
Keywords: climate change; flood forecasting; infrastructure.