Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a complex metabolic disorder and a high-risk condition for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Rapid screening of at-risk individuals using accurate and time-saving tools is effective in disease management. Using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) data, we collected data from 2234 participants suitable for the study design, of which 974 (43.6%) were men and 1260 (56.4%) were women. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to estimate the optimal sex-specific neck circumference (NC) cut-off point to predict the MetS risk. To analyze the risk of MetS according to the estimated NC, logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the confounding factors. The result of the ROC analysis showed that the optimal neck cut-off points for predicting the risk of MetS were 38.25 cm (AUC: 0.759, 95% CI: 0.729-0.790) in men and 33.65 cm (AUC: 0.811, 95% CI: 0.782-0.840) in women. In the upper NC cut-off point compared to the lower NC cut-off point, NC was associated with an increased MetS risk by 2.014-fold (p = 0.010) in men and 3.650-fold (p < 0.001) in women, after adjustments. The current study supports NC as an effective anthropometric indicator for predicting the risk of MetS. It is suggested that more studies should be conducted to analyze the disease prediction effect of the combined application of anthropometric indicators currently in use and NC.
Keywords: BMI; KNHANES; MetS; ROC curve; neck circumference; waist circumference.