Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. We established and validated a liver stiffness (LS)-based risk prediction model for HCC development in patients with NAFLD. A total of 2666 and 467 patients with NAFLD were recruited in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. NAFLD was defined as controlled attenuated parameter ≥238 dB/m by transient elastography. Over a median of 64.6 months, HCC developed in 22 (0.8%) subjects in the training cohort. Subjects who developed HCC were older and had higher prevalence of diabetes and cirrhosis, lower platelet count, and higher AST levels compared to those who did not develop HCC (all p < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, age ≥60 years (hazard ratio (HR) = 9.1), platelet count <150 × 103/μL (HR = 3.7), and LS ≥9.3 kPa (HR = 13.8) were independent predictors (all p < 0.05) that were used to develop a risk prediction model for HCC development, together with AST ≥34 IU/L. AUCs for predicting HCC development at 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.948, 0.947, and 0.939, respectively. This model was validated in the validation cohort (AUC 0.777, 0.781, and 0.784 at 2, 3, and 5 years, respectively). The new risk prediction model for NAFLD-related HCC development showed acceptable performance in the training and validation cohorts.
Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma; liver cirrhosis; liver fibrosis; liver stiffness; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; risk prediction; transient elastography.