Optimised and systematic suitable climate modelling confirms future longitudinal-trends for growing oil palm in Africa

Abstract

Palms are iconic plants. Oil palms are very important economically and originate in Africa where they can act as a model for palms in general. The effect of future climate on the growth of oil palm will be very detrimental. Latitudinal migration of tropical crops to climate refuges may be impossible, and longitudinal migration has only been confirmed for oil palm, of all the tropical crops. The previous method to determine the longitudinal trend for oil palm used the longitudes of various countries in Africa and plotted these against the percentage suitable climate for growing oil palms in each country. An increasing longitudinal trend was observed from west to east. However, the longitudes of the countries were randomly distributed which may have introduced bias and the procedure was time consuming. The present report presents an optimised and systematic procedure that divided the regions, as presented on a map derived from a CLIMEX model, into ten equal sectors and the percentage suitable climates for growing oil palm were determined for each sector. This approach was quicker, systematic and straight forward and will be useful for management of oil palm plantations under climate change. The method confirmed and validated the trends reported in the original method although the suitability values were often lower and there was less spread of values around the trend. The values for the CSIRO MK3.0 and MIROC H models demonstrated considerable similarities to each other, contributing to validation of the method. The procedure of dividing maps equally into sectors derived from models, could be used for other crops, regions, or systems more generally, where the alternative may be a more superficial visual examination of the maps. Methods are required to mitigate the effects of climate change and stakeholders need to contribute more actively to the current climate debate with tangible actions.

Keywords: CLIMEX; Elaeis guineensis; Global warming; Model optimization; Refuges; Tropical Africa.