Epidemic management with admissible and robust invariant sets

PLoS One. 2021 Sep 24;16(9):e0257598. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257598. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

We present a detailed set-based analysis of the well-known SIR and SEIR epidemic models subjected to hard caps on the proportion of infective individuals, and bounds on the allowable intervention strategies, such as social distancing, quarantining and vaccination. We describe the admissible and maximal robust positively invariant (MRPI) sets of these two models via the theory of barriers. We show how the sets may be used in the management of epidemics, for both perfect and imperfect/uncertain models, detailing how intervention strategies may be specified such that the hard infection cap is never breached, regardless of the basic reproduction number. The results are clarified with detailed examples.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Epidemics*
  • Vaccination

Grants and funding

This work was partially funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grants 05M18OCA: "Verbundprojekt 05M2018 - KONSENS: Konsistente Optimierung und Stabilisierung elektrischer Netzwerksysteme") awarded to SS. No additional external funding was received for this study.