Multi-scale assessment of water security under climate change in North China in the past two decades

Abstract

Climate change is projected to affect the hydrological cycles in China, while the effects are expected to vary spatiotemporally. Understanding the variations in water security conditions and their sensitivity to climatic variables is crucial for assessing regional ecosystem responses to climate change. In the present study, we estimated the water yield capacity, an important indicator of water security in North China (NC), at a spatial resolution of 1 km during the last two decades based on the Budyko framework and quantified the sensitivity of water yield change to climate change among different vegetation types. The results showed that the performances of the Budyko framework were reliable both at the pixel scale and across large watersheds. The annual water yield in North China was estimated to be 7.61 ± 2.67 ∗ 10¹⁰ m³/yr, with an average mean water yield (MWY) of 49.51 ± 17.49 mm/yr. The spatial pattern of mean water yield change (MWYC) exhibited high heterogeneity; 46% of the study region was dominated by an increasing trend, while 9.84% was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Compared with temperature, the water yield capacity was more sensitive to precipitation variation. A consistent trend of variation was found in cropland between water yield and precipitation, while negative sensitivity coefficients were found in natural vegetation types. The variation in sensitivity coefficients (Swyp) in natural vegetation showed that in regions with a decrease in precipitation, the variation in water yield capacity also decreased, while in regions with an increase in precipitation from 0 to 8 mm/yr, the water yield capacity first decreased and then increased with precipitation. Our findings suggest that grass and shrubs would be more beneficial to regional water security in North China's revegetation, while afforestation would provide protection for the regional environment from extreme rainfall events.

Keywords: Climatic factor; North China; Vegetation types; Water security.