The objective of this study was to describe a predictive modeling approach to risk stratify people with type 2 diabetes for diabetes self-management education and support (DSMES) services. With data from a large health system, a predictive model including age, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and insulin use among other factors, was developed to assess risk of future high HbA1c. The model was retrospectively applied to a cohort of people who received DSMES over a 2-year period to assess the impact of DSMES on glycemia by risk strata. Of 6934 eligible people, 4014 (58%) were in the composite low-risk group and 2604 (38%) were in the composite high-risk group. Mean HbA1c change after DSMES was -0.38% in the low-risk group and -0.84% in the high-risk group. This analysis demonstrates the potential application of predictive modeling as one approach to target DSMES resources to people who will benefit most.
Keywords: Diabetes self-management education and support; Population health management; Predictive modeling; Type 2 diabetes.