COVID-19 and the aviation industry: The interrelationship between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the frequency of flights on the EU market

Anyu Liu; Yoo Ri Kim; John Frankie O'Connell

doi:10.1016/j.annals.2021.103298

COVID-19 and the aviation industry: The interrelationship between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the frequency of flights on the EU market

Ann Tour Res. 2021 Nov:91:103298. doi: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103298. Epub 2021 Sep 9.

Authors

Anyu Liu¹, Yoo Ri Kim¹, John Frankie O'Connell¹

Affiliation

¹ University of Surrey, United Kingdom.

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the contribution of aviation related travel restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 in Europe by using quasi-experiment approaches including the regression discontinuity design and a two-stage spatial Durbin model with an instrumental variable. The study provides concrete evidence that the severe curtailing of flights had a spontaneous impact in controlling the spread of COVID-19. The counterfactual analysis encapsulated the spillover effects deduced that a 1% decrease in flight frequency can decrease the number of confirmed cases by 0.908%. The study also reveals that during the lockdown, the aviation industry cancelled over 795,000 flights, which resulted in averting an additional six million people being from being infected and saving 101,309 lives.

Keywords: Airline; COVID-19; Flight frequency; Regression discontinuity design; Travel restrictions; Two-stage spatial Durbin model.