Multivariate random forest prediction of poverty and malnutrition prevalence

PLoS One. 2021 Sep 8;16(9):e0255519. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255519. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Advances in remote sensing and machine learning enable increasingly accurate, inexpensive, and timely estimation of poverty and malnutrition indicators to guide development and humanitarian agencies' programming. However, state of the art models often rely on proprietary data and/or deep or transfer learning methods whose underlying mechanics may be challenging to interpret. We demonstrate how interpretable random forest models can produce estimates of a set of (potentially correlated) malnutrition and poverty prevalence measures using free, open access, regularly updated, georeferenced data. We demonstrate two use cases: contemporaneous prediction, which might be used for poverty mapping, geographic targeting, or monitoring and evaluation tasks, and a sequential nowcasting task that can inform early warning systems. Applied to data from 11 low and lower-middle income countries, we find predictive accuracy broadly comparable for both tasks to prior studies that use proprietary data and/or deep or transfer learning methods.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Developing Countries / economics
  • Developing Countries / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Machine Learning*
  • Malnutrition / economics
  • Malnutrition / epidemiology*
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Poverty / statistics & numerical data*
  • Prevalence
  • Social Problems / statistics & numerical data*

Grants and funding

This work was funded by the United States Agency for International Development under cooperative agreement # 7200AA18CA00014, “Innovations in Feed the Future Monitoring and Evaluation - Harnessing Big Data and Machine Learning to Feed the Future”. USAID website: usaid.gov Funding was received by CB (Chris Barrett, PI), YS, LH, YL, DM (co-pis). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.