Aim: Despite advances in the management of liver diseases and changes in the etiology of cirrhosis, few studies have updated the prognosis of cirrhosis. This study aimed to clarify the recent prognosis of cirrhosis and identify risk factors for death.
Methods: In this retrospective observational study by the Hepatic Disease Network of the National Hospital Organization in Japan, chart reviews were performed to follow patients with cirrhosis beginning in 2011. We conducted Kaplan-Meier survival time analyses stratified by Child-Pugh classification and albumin-bilirubin grade. Cox regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for death.
Results: We identified 444 eligible patients from 25 hospitals, including 303 (68%), 110 (25%), and 31 (7%) patients with Child-Pugh classes A, B, and C, respectively. Hepatitis C virus infection was the cause of cirrhosis for 63% of the patients. The 1-year and 5-year cumulative survival rates of patients with Child-Pugh classes A, B, and C were 90% and 61%, 78% and 42%, and 65% and 25%, respectively. The 1-year and 5-year cumulative survival rates of patients with albumin-bilirubin grades 1, 2, and 3 were 98% and 80%, 91% and 56%, and 58% and 23%, respectively. Cirrhosis classification (Child-Pugh and albumin-bilirubin), age, liver cancer, and untreated esophageal varices were associated with increased hazard of death.
Conclusions: Little improvement was observed in the prognosis of cirrhosis compared with previous reports, and the prognosis of Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis remained poor. Untreated esophageal varices were identified as a risk factor for death.
Keywords: cohort studies; liver cirrhosis; mortality.
© 2021 The Authors. Hepatology Research published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Society of Hepatology.