Differences in worst-case scenarios calculated by fixed length and rolling average methods in professional soccer match-play

José M Oliva-Lozano; Isabel Martín-Fuentes; Víctor Fortes; José M Muyor

doi:10.5114/biolsport.2021.99706

Differences in worst-case scenarios calculated by fixed length and rolling average methods in professional soccer match-play

Biol Sport. 2021 Sep;38(3):325-331. doi: 10.5114/biolsport.2021.99706. Epub 2020 Oct 24.

Authors

José M Oliva-Lozano¹, Isabel Martín-Fuentes¹, Víctor Fortes², José M Muyor^{1

3}

Affiliations

¹ Health Research Centre. University of Almería. Almería, Spain.
² UD Almería, Almería, Spain.
³ Laboratory of Kinesiology, Biomechanics and Ergonomics (KIBIOMER Lab.), Research Central Services, University of Almería, Spain.

Abstract

The aims of this study were to describe the worst-case scenarios (WCS) in professional soccer players calculated by fixed length and rolling average methods with regards to each playing position. This was done, firstly, by comparing total distance (TD covered in the WCS; secondly, by comparing high-speed running distance (HSRD); and thirdly, by comparing sprint distance (SPD). The study was conducted over a three-mesocycle competitive period. The WCS of three distance-related variables (TD, HSRD, SPD) in four time windows (1, 3, 5, 10 minutes) were calculated according to playing position (central defender; full-back; midfielder, wide midfielder, and forward) using fixed length and rolling average methods. A significant effect of the type of method used to calculate the WCS in TD (F_{(1, 142)} = 151.49, p < 0.001, ηp² = 0.52), HSRD (F_{(1, 138)} = 336.95, p < 0.001, ηp² = 0.71) and SPD (F_{(1, 138)} = 76.74, p < 0.001, ηp² = 0.36) was observed. In addition, there was a significant interaction between type of method and WCS duration in TD (F_{(1.36, 193.53)} = 41.95, p < 0.001, ηp² = 0.23), HSRD (F_{(2.28, 315.11)} = 21.77, p < 0.001, ηp² = 0.14) and SPD (F_{(2.59, 358.41)} = 6.93, p < 0.001, ηp² = 0.05). In conclusion, the use of fixed length methods of different durations significantly underestimated the WCS of TD, HSRD and SPD across the most common playing positions in professional soccer players. Therefore, the application of rolling averages is recommended for an appropriate WCS analysis in professional soccer match-play.

Keywords: External load; Football; GPS; Most demanding passage; Performance.