Background: Recalibrating diagnostic thresholds or using alternative labels may mitigate overdiagnosis and overtreatment of papillary microcarcinoma (mPTC). We aimed at identifying and collating relevant epidemiological evidence on mPTC, to assess the case for recalibration and/or new labels. Methods: We searched EMBASE and PubMed databases from inception to December 2020 for natural history, autopsy, diagnostic drift, and diagnostic reproducibility studies. Where a relevant systematic review was pre-identified, only new articles were additionally included. Non-English articles were excluded. One author screened titles and abstracts. Two authors screened full text articles, performed quality assessments, and extracted data. We undertook narrative synthesis of included evidence (pooled estimates from systematic reviews and single estimates from primary studies). Results: One systematic review of patients undergoing active surveillance found that after 5 years of follow-up, 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI 4.4-6.4%]) of the mPTC lesions had increased in size by ≥3 mm, and 1.6% [CI 1.1-2.4%] of patients had lymph node metastases. Among 7 new primary studies (including 3 updates on 2 studies included in the systematic review), 1-5% of patients undergoing active surveillance had lymph node metastases after a median follow-up of 1-10 years. One systematic review found that subclinical thyroid cancer incidentally discovered at autopsy is relatively common, with a pooled prevalence of 11.2% [CI 6.7-16.1%] among studies that examined the whole thyroid. Four diagnostic drift studies evaluated the new classification of non-invasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP). Three studies of cases previously diagnosed as papillary thyroid cancer found 1.3-2.3% were reclassified as NIFTP (reclassifications were from follicular variation of papillary thyroid cancer [FVPTC]). One study of 48 cases previously diagnosed as mPTC found that 23.5% were reclassified as NIFTP. Thirteen reproducibility studies of papillary thyroid lesions found substantial variation in the histopathological diagnosis of thyroid lesions, including FVPTC and NIFTP classifications (no study evaluated mPTC). Conclusions: This review supports consideration of recalibrating diagnostic thresholds and/or alternative labels for low-risk mPTC.
Keywords: epidemiology; histopathology; overdiagnosis; overuse; thyroid cancer.