A stochastic modeling approach for analyzing water resources systems

Yutong Li; Yanpeng Cai; Qiang Fu; Xuan Wang; Chunhui Li; Qiang Liu; Ronghua Xu

doi:10.1016/j.jconhyd.2021.103865

A stochastic modeling approach for analyzing water resources systems

J Contam Hydrol. 2021 Oct:242:103865. doi: 10.1016/j.jconhyd.2021.103865. Epub 2021 Aug 8.

Authors

Yutong Li¹, Yanpeng Cai², Qiang Fu³, Xuan Wang⁴, Chunhui Li⁵, Qiang Liu⁶, Ronghua Xu⁷

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: 202031180020@mail.bnu.edu.cn.
² State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Institute for Energy, Environment, and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2, Canada. Electronic address: yanpeng.cai@gdut.edu.cn.
³ School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China. Electronic address: fuqiang@neau.edu.cn.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: wangx@bnu.edu.cn.
⁵ State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: chunhuili@bnu.edu.cn.
⁶ State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: liuqiang@bnu.edu.cn.
⁷ State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: 201531180021@mail.bnu.edu.cn.

PMID: 34450526
DOI: 10.1016/j.jconhyd.2021.103865

Abstract

Many uncertain factors exist in the water resource systems, leading to dynamic characteristics of the water distribution process. Especially for the watershed including irrigation area with multiple water sources and water users, it is complicated that the joint risk among available water from each water source and multi-uncertainties under water resource allocation among multiple water users. In this research, an approach is developed that a copula-based interval multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (CIMFSP) model. This research aims at figuring out the planning of a case study for water-resources management. In the multi-sources water supply subsystem, the copula function is introduced to tackle the interaction of water availability between two water sources (i.e., A &B). Joint risk was set 0.05, 0.10, 0.15 to reflect the shortage risk of total available water at diverse levels. An interval parameter multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (IMFSP) model is developed for water resource distribution in a multi-users water-demand subsystem. Through this model, uncertainties presented as interval numbers and probability distributions, as well as fuzzy sets, were handled. The dynamics of the entire water resource system can be reflected by multi-stage discrete trees. A series of solutions can be generated under multiple scenarios (i.e., joint risk and α-cut levels). The modeling results will produce a series of alternatives under a battery of scenarios and help the decision-makers get an insight into the tradeoff between the system economic benefit and financial penalties under the corresponding risk level. This approach is valuable for improving the feasibility of optimal results in the watershed with irrigation region water resource management.

Keywords: Coupled risk; Fuzzy sets; Irrigation; Multi-stage stochastic analysis; Water resource system.

MeSH terms

Fuzzy Logic*
Models, Theoretical
Probability
Stochastic Processes
Uncertainty
Water Resources*
Water Supply