A month-long wastewater sampling project was conducted along the northeast periphery of Mexico City, specifically in the state of Hidalgo, to assess the presence of SARS-CoV-2. To determine the prevalence of infection and obtain a range of COVID-19 cases in the main metropolitan zones. Viral RNA residues (0-197,655 copies/L) were measured in wastewater from the five central municipalities in the state. By recording the number of RNA viral copies per liter, micro-basins delimitation, demographic and physiological data, an interval of infected people and virus prevalence was estimated using a Monte Carlo model (with 90% confidence) in the micro-basin of five municipalities with metropolitan influence or industrial activity. Our procedure determined that the percentage of the infected population ranges from 1.4% to 41.7%, while the official data reports 0.1-0.3%. This model is proposed as a helpful method of regional epidemiological monitoring through the analysis of viral prevalence.
Keywords: environmental policy; epidemiological monitoring; prevalence; wastewater; wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE).