Predictors of seizure recurrence in emergency department pediatric patients with first-onset afebrile seizure: A retrospective observational study

Abstract

Introduction: The primary goals of emergency department (ED) clinicians when dealing with a pediatric patient experiencing a seizure are to control the seizure and prevent seizure-related complications. After stabilizing the patient, the clinician should determine whether the patient is likely to have recurrent seizures that may need treatment such as antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). The early identification of pediatric seizure patients at high risk for recurrence can be of great help in consulting with their parents. This study aimed to identify predictors of seizure recurrence in pediatric patients who visited the ED for first-onset afebrile seizure.

Methods: This retrospective study was conducted with pediatric patients aged 1 month to 18 years who visited our ED for afebrile seizure from January 2016 to March 2020. Children with a known seizure disorder, known underlying genetic or metabolic disorder, or acute trauma history, and those lost to follow-up were excluded. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with seizure recurrence.

Results: A total of 253 pediatric patients were included in the study. Seizure recurrence was observed in 117 patients (46.3%). From the multivariable logistic regression analysis, older age at onset (11-15 years, odds ratio [OR] 5.781, p = 0.001; 16-18 years, OR 6.223, p = 0.002), a longer seizure duration (1-5 min, OR 3.043, p = 0.002; 6-10 min, OR 5.629, p = 0.002; >10 min, OR 8.882, p = 0.002), blood pH under 7.2 (OR 8.308, p = 0.015), and a glucose level over 144 mg/dL (OR 6.408, p = 0.030) were significantly associated with seizure recurrence. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the multivariable logistic regression analysis was 0.774.

Conclusion: Age at onset ≥11 years, a longer seizure duration, acidosis, and hyperglycemia were predictors of seizure recurrence in children who had experienced first-onset afebrile seizure.

Keywords: Acidosis; Age of onset; Epilepsy; Hyperglycemia; Recurrence; Seizure.