An analysis of the asymmetric effects of natural gas consumption on economic growth in Pakistan: A non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach

Abstract

Natural gas is a vital energy resource that is used to produce the national output of Pakistan. On the other hand, since natural gas is a relatively cleaner energy resource compared to oil and coal, enhancing the level of natural gas consumption can be expected to promote economic growth while somewhat improving environmental quality in the process. Hence, it is pertinent to assess the economic growth effects associated with the consumption of such comparatively cleaner energy resources. Against this background, the main objective of this paper is to explore the asymmetric effects of natural gas consumption, controlling for financial development, on Pakistan's economic growth figure over the 1965-2019 period. The results from the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests confirm a mixed order of integration among the variables. Besides, the bounds test and the Gregory-Hansen co-integration analysis reveal evidence of long-run associations between economic growth, natural gas consumption, and financial development in the context of Pakistan. Moreover, the outcomes from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model analysis show that in the short-run, positive changes in the natural gas consumption levels increase Pakistan's economic growth. On the other hand, in the long-run, positive and negative changes in natural gas consumption levels increase and decrease the nation's economic growth level, respectively. On the other hand, both positive and negative changes in the financial development level are found to reduce Pakistan's economic growth level in the long run only. Furthermore, the Hacker-Hatemi-J causality analysis verifies that natural gas consumption causally influences the economic growth level in Pakistan; thus, verifying the energy consumption-led growth phenomenon. In line with these key findings, several policy level suggestions are put forward for Pakistan to enhance its natural gas consumption level in order to boost its economic growth rate in the future.

Keywords: Asymmetric effects; Economic growth; Financial development; Natural gas; Pakistan.