Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anti-tumor associated antigen autoantibody (TAAb) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in cirrhosis population with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Methods: A simulated cohort of 40-year-old patients with CHB cirrhosis was established with a sample size of 10 000. Using TAAb screening alone or TAAb and AFP screening in parallel (TAAb + AFP) as the research strategy, and liver ultrasound and AFP screening in parallel (liver ultrasound + AFP) as the control strategy, the decision analysis Markov model was constructed and the model validity was evaluated. The 6-month cycle was simulated using TreeAge Pro 2020 software. Cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were calculated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the two strategies, and sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the uncertainty of results. Results: The Markov model had a total of 11 outcomes, of which 7 were natural outcomes and 4 wereclinical intervention outcomes, and the goodness of fit was 0.969. The lifetime screening cost of TAAb+AFP strategy for HCC screening was 249 612 yuan/case, and the QALY per capita was 7.704 years. Compared with liver ultrasound +AFP strategy (247 805 yuan/case), the total health cost increased by 1 807 yuan/case, and the QALY obtained was 0.014. The ICER was 127 635 yuan /QALY. When the TAAb screening fee was higher than 889.552 yuan, or the discount rate was higher than 0.068, or the antiviral treatment compliance was lower than 45.1%, ICER > 212 676 yuan /QALY. When the single TAAb screening fee was 400-600 yuan, the TAAB+AFP strategy had cost effective value. When the willingness to pay was 70 892, 141 784 and 212 676 yuan /QALY, the probability of cost-effectiveness of TAAb+AFP strategy was 70.6%, 75.3% and 77.8%, respectively. Conclusion: It is cost-effective to use TAAb+AFP for early screening of liver cancer in Chinese population with CHB cirrhosis.
目的： 评价肿瘤相关抗原自身抗体（TAAb）在慢性乙型肝炎相关肝硬化（CHB肝硬化）人群中筛查肝癌的成本效果。 方法： 构建40岁CHB肝硬化患者模拟队列，样本量为10 000例。以单独TAAb筛查或TAAb与甲胎蛋白（AFP）并联筛查（TAAb+AFP）为研究策略，以肝脏超声与AFP并联筛查（肝脏超声+AFP）为对照策略，构建决策分析马尔科夫模型并对模型效度进行评价。以6个月为周期，通过TreeAge Pro 2020软件实现模拟运转，计算成本和质量调整生命年（QALY），采用增量成本效果比（ICER）进行策略间的比较，通过敏感性分析评价结果的不确定性。 结果： 建立的马尔科夫模型共有11个转归状态，其中7个为自然转归，4个为临床干预转归，拟合优度为0.969。采用TAAb+AFP策略进行肝癌筛查的终生筛查成本为249 612元/例，人均获得的QALY为7.704年，与肝脏超声检查+AFP策略（247 805元/例）相比，总卫生费用增加1 807元/例，多获得的QALY为 0.014，ICER为127 635元/QALY。当TAAb筛查费高于889.552元，或贴现率高于0.068，或抗病毒治疗依从性低于45.1%时，ICER>212 676元/QALY。单次TAAb筛查费为400~600元时，TAAb+AFP策略具有成本效果价值。当支付意愿为70 892、141 784和212 676元/QALY时，TAAb+AFP策略具有成本效果的概率分别为70.6%、75.3%和77.8%。 结论： 对中国CHB肝硬化人群采用TAAb+AFP策略进行肝癌早期筛查具有成本效果价值。.