An immune-related prognostic signature for thyroid carcinoma to predict survival and response to immune checkpoint inhibitors

Abstract

Thyroid carcinoma (THCA) is the most common endocrine malignancy, and its incidence is increasing worldwide. Several studies have explored whether the tumor immune microenvironment and immune-related genes (IRGs) influence the prognosis of patients with THCA and can be used to predict the response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). We developed an IRG prognostic/risk signature using a bioinformatics method, and its predictive capacity was validated in patients in the test set and the total set. Subsequently, we analyzed the correlation between this IRG prognostic signature and tumor-infiltrating immune cells, tumor mutation burden (TMB), and immune checkpoint protein expression in patients with THCA. With a multivariate analysis, the IRG prognostic signature, which comprised eight IRGs, was identified as an independent prognostic factor. High-risk patients had poor overall survival compared with low-risk patients. Plasma cells, monocytes, and dendritic cells infiltrated differently according to the IRG prognostic signature. The low-risk group had a higher TMB and immunophenoscore (IPS), which indicated a better response to ICIs. The qRT-PCR validated eight IRGs with differential expression in thyroid cancer and normal tissues. We conclude that the IRG prognostic signature may be a useful tool to predict survival and response to ICIs. However, further testing is required to assess the predictive capacity of this IRG prognostic signature.

Keywords: Immune checkpoint; Immune signature; Prognosis; THCA; TMB.