Prognostic Value of an Immunohistochemical Signature in Patients With Head and Neck Mucosal Melanoma

Abstract

Purpose: We aimed to develop a prognostic immunohistochemistry (IHC) signature for patients with head and neck mucosal melanoma (MMHN).

Methods: In total, 190 patients with nonmetastatic MMHN with complete clinical and pathological data before treatment were included in our retrospective study.

Results: We extracted five IHC markers associated with overall survival (OS) and then constructed a signature in the training set (n=116) with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model. The validation set (n=74) was further built to confirm the prognostic significance of this classifier. We then divided patients into high- and low-risk groups according to the IHC score. In the training set, the 5-year OS rate was 22.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.2%- 43.2%) for the high-risk group and 54.1% (95% CI: 41.8%-69.9%) for the low-risk group (P<0.001), and in the validation set, the 5-year OS rate was 38.1% (95% CI: 17.9%-81.1%) for the high-risk group and 43.1% (95% CI: 30.0%-61.9%) for the low-risk group (P=0.26). Multivariable analysis revealed that IHC score, T stage, and primary tumor site were independent variables for predicting OS (all P<0.05). We developed a nomogram incorporating clinicopathological risk factors (primary site and T stage) and the IHC score to predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS.

Conclusions: A nomogram was generated and confirmed to be of clinical value. Our IHC classifier integrating five IHC markers could help clinicians make decisions and determine optimal treatments for patients with MMHN.

Keywords: head and neck mucosal melanoma; immunohistochemistry; nomogram; prognosis; signature.