A deep learning-based radiomic nomogram for prognosis and treatment decision in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A multicentre study

Abstract

Background: Induction chemotherapy (ICT) plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) and CCRT alone were the optional treatment regimens in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients. Currently, the choice of them remains equivocal in clinical practice. We aimed to develop a deep learning-based model for treatment decision in NPC.

Methods: A total of 1872 patients with stage T3N1M0 NPC were enrolled from four Chinese centres and received either ICT+CCRT or CCRT. A nomogram was constructed for predicting the prognosis of patients with different treatment regimens using multi-task deep learning radiomics and pre-treatment MR images, based on which an optimal treatment regimen was recommended. Model performance was assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

Findings: The nomogram showed excellent prognostic ability for disease-free survival in both the CCRT (C-index range: 0.888-0.921) and ICT+CCRT (C-index range: 0.784-0.830) groups. According to the prognostic difference between treatments using the nomogram, patients were divided into the ICT-preferred and CCRT-preferred groups. In the ICT-preferred group, patients receiving ICT+CCRT exhibited prolonged survival over those receiving CCRT in the internal and external test cohorts (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.17, p<0.001 and 0.24, p=0.02); while the trend was opposite in the CCRT-preferred group (HR: 6.24, p<0.001 and 12.08, p<0.001). Similar results for treatment decision using the nomogram were obtained in different subgroups stratified by clinical factors and MR acquisition parameters.

Interpretation: Our nomogram could predict the prognosis of T3N1M0 NPC patients with different treatment regimens and accordingly recommend an optimal treatment regimen, which may serve as a potential tool for promoting personalized treatment of NPC.

Funding: National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing Natural Science Foundation, Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS, Project of High-Level Talents Team Introduction in Zhuhai City, Beijing Natural Science Foundation, Beijing Nova Program, Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS.

Keywords: Advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma; Multi-task deep learning; Radiomic nomogram; Survival analysis; Treatment decision.